NBA Vegas SRS Rankings 11/26

  1. San Antonio +6.5
  2. Miami +6.4
  3. LA Clippers +6.0
  4. Oklahoma City +5.1
  5. Indiana +4.8
  6. Golden State +4.3
  7. Houston +4.2
  8. Chicago +3.3
  9. Minnesota +2.7
  10. Memphis +2.5
  11. Portland +1.6
  12. Dallas +1.3
  13. New Orleans +1.1
  14. Brooklyn +0.8
  15. Denver -0.3
  16. Atlanta -0.4
  17. New York -0.6
  18. Detroit -0.6
  19. Toronto -0.7
  20. Washington -1.5
  21. Cleveland -1.9
  22. Sacramento -2.8
  23. Phoenix -3.6
  24. Orlando -4.1
  25. LA Lakers -4.7
  26. Boston -5.1
  27. Charlotte -5.3
  28. Utah -5.7
  29. Milwaukee -5.8
  30. Philadelphia -6.6
Advertisements

NFL Vegas SRS Rankings 11/21

Same methodology as the NBA rankings…

  1. Denver +8.7
  2. Seattle +7.4
  3. San Francisco +5.3
  4. Green Bay +4.3
  5. New Orleans +2.9
  6. New England +2.5
  7. Philadelphia +2.2
  8. Carolina +1.9
  9. Detroit +1.8
  10. Houston +1.6
  11. Chicago +1.5
  12. Kansas City +1.4
  13. Indianapolis +1.1
  14. Dallas +1.0
  15. Cincinnati +1.0
  16. NY Giants +0.5
  17. Baltimore +0.4
  18. Washington -0.1
  19. Atlanta -0.4
  20. San Diego -1.1
  21. Arizona -1.2
  22. Miami -1.5
  23. Pittsburgh -1.7
  24. Minnesota -2.1
  25. Tennessee -2.3
  26. Cleveland -3.1
  27. Tampa Bay -3.2
  28. St. Louis -3.3
  29. NY Jets -5.1
  30. Buffalo -5.8
  31. Oakland -6.0
  32. Jacksonville -10.8

NBA Vegas SRS Rankings 11/19

What Vegas thinks of the 30 NBA teams…

Team Vegas SRS Record
Miami +6.8 7-3
LA Clippers +6.5 7-4
San Antonio +6.2 9-1
Oklahoma City +4.9 7-3
Golden State +4.5 8-3
Indiana +4.3 9-1
Houston +4.1 7-4
Chicago +3.7 6-3
Memphis +2.7 6-5
Minnesota +2.6 7-4
Brooklyn +1.5 3-7
Dallas +1.2 7-4
Portland +1.0 9-2
New Orleans +0.9 4-6
New York -0.1 3-6
Detroit -0.5 3-6
Denver -0.7 4-6
Atlanta -0.7 6-4
Toronto -0.9 4-7
Washington -1.2 2-7
Cleveland -1.7 4-7
Sacramento -2.4 2-7
Phoenix -3.7 5-4
Orlando -4.2 4-6
Boston -4.9 4-7
LA Lakers -5.2 5-7
Charlotte -5.4 5-6
Milwaukee -5.6 2-7
Utah -5.8 1-11
Philadelphia -6.3 5-7

2013-14 NBA RSPM Ratings Now Live

I’ve finished my first batch of RSPM ratings for NBA players this year. They can be found at this link: https://youhavenogame.wordpress.com/2013-14-rspm/

These ratings use a Bayesian prior. That means each rating is a combination of how well the player has actually performed, and my preseason projection for each player. When each player reaches 600 minutes played I will drop the prior and the RSPM will be based on this season’s performance only.

Top 10 most valuable players so far this year:

  1. Kevin Love
  2. Anthony Davis
  3. Chris Paul
  4. Ricky Rubio
  5. Paul George
  6. Kevin Durant
  7. Andre Iguodala
  8. DeAndre Jordan
  9. Roy Hibbert
  10. Blake Griffin

Bottom 10 LEAST valuable players so far this year:

  1. Dennis Schroeder
  2. Al Harrington
  3. John Lucas
  4. Aron Baynes
  5. Quincy Pondexter
  6. Derrick Rose (yes, that Derrick Rose)
  7. Udonis Haslem
  8. Jeff Taylor
  9. Alexey Shved
  10. Byron Mullens

NBA Vegas SRS Rankings 11/11

The NBA program is no more… it was fun when I thought RSPM numbers might actually do somewhat well against the spread. Instead I am publishing the NBA Vegas SRS rankings that in my opinion give the most accurate ranking of NBA teams.

  1. Miami +7.4
  2. San Antonio +5.9
  3. LA Clippers +5.4
  4. Chicago +4.8
  5. Oklahoma City +4.3
  6. Indiana +4.3
  7. Houston +4.1
  8. Golden State +3.3
  9. Memphis +3.0
  10. Brooklyn +2.9
  11. Minnesota +1.6
  12. Portland +1.0
  13. Dallas +0.9
  14. New Orleans +0.9
  15. New York +0.8
  16. Cleveland -0.5
  17. Denver -0.6
  18. Detroit -0.6
  19. Washington -1.1
  20. Atlanta -1.1
  21. Toronto -1.5
  22. Sacramento -1.9
  23. Milwaukee -4.4
  24. Phoenix -4.7
  25. Orlando -5.0
  26. Charlotte -5.1
  27. Boston -5.4
  28. LA Lakers -5.6
  29. Utah -5.6
  30. Philadelphia -6.2

NBA Program 11/10

RSPM RMSE: 12.00

Vegas RMSE: 10.71

When there is at least a three-point difference between RSPM and Vegas, RSPM is 22-25-1 against the spread. Almost as good as a coin flip!

Away Team Home Team RSPM Line Vegas Line
San Antonio (+9.48) New York (+0.84) San Antonio by 5.64 San Antonio by 3
Washington (+2.97) Oklahoma City (+5.36) Oklahoma City by 5.39 Oklahoma City by 9.5
New Orleans (+0.79) Phoenix (-10.59) New Orleans by 8.38 New Orleans by 2
Minnesota (+3.76) LA Lakers (-7.57) Minnesota by 8.33 Minnesota by 3.5

NBA Vegas SRS Rankings

If you’re familiar with Basketball Reference you’re probably also familiar with SRS. SRS stands for Simple Rating System. It rates teams by taking their point differentials and adjusting for their strength of schedule, then taking those updated rankings and adjusting them repeatedly until a stable rating is found. A detailed explanation of SRS can be found here.

I ran the SRS formula for the 30 NBA teams, but instead of using each team’s actual point differential, I used the point spreads from Las Vegas to rank the teams. The idea is to get a rough picture of what Las Vegas/the betting public thinks of each team. Here are the results:

  1. Miami +7.4
  2. San Antonio +6.2
  3. LA Clippers +5.4
  4. Chicago +4.8
  5. Houston +4.1
  6. Oklahoma City +4.1
  7. Indiana +4.0
  8. Memphis +3.4
  9. Golden State +3.4
  10. Brooklyn +2.9
  11. Minnesota +1.7
  12. New York +1.1
  13. Portland +1.0
  14. New Orleans +1.0
  15. Dallas +0.9
  16. Cleveland -0.6
  17. Detroit -0.7
  18. Denver -0.8
  19. Washington -1.0
  20. Atlanta -1.4
  21. Toronto -1.5
  22. Sacramento -2.0
  23. Milwaukee -4.4
  24. Charlotte -4.7
  25. Phoenix -4.8
  26. Orlando -5.0
  27. Boston -5.4
  28. Utah -5.5
  29. LA Lakers -5.6
  30. Philadelphia -6.6