Monthly Archives: November 2013

NBA Vegas SRS Rankings 11/26

Posted by David Williams on
  1. San Antonio +6.5
  2. Miami +6.4
  3. LA Clippers +6.0
  4. Oklahoma City +5.1
  5. Indiana +4.8
  6. Golden State +4.3
  7. Houston +4.2
  8. Chicago +3.3
  9. Minnesota +2.7
  10. Memphis +2.5
  11. Portland +1.6
  12. Dallas +1.3
  13. New Orleans +1.1
  14. Brooklyn +0.8
  15. Denver -0.3
  16. Atlanta -0.4
  17. New York -0.6
  18. Detroit -0.6
  19. Toronto -0.7
  20. Washington -1.5
  21. Cleveland -1.9
  22. Sacramento -2.8
  23. Phoenix -3.6
  24. Orlando -4.1
  25. LA Lakers -4.7
  26. Boston -5.1
  27. Charlotte -5.3
  28. Utah -5.7
  29. Milwaukee -5.8
  30. Philadelphia -6.6

NFL Vegas SRS Rankings 11/21

Posted by David Williams on

Same methodology as the NBA rankings…

  1. Denver +8.7
  2. Seattle +7.4
  3. San Francisco +5.3
  4. Green Bay +4.3
  5. New Orleans +2.9
  6. New England +2.5
  7. Philadelphia +2.2
  8. Carolina +1.9
  9. Detroit +1.8
  10. Houston +1.6
  11. Chicago +1.5
  12. Kansas City +1.4
  13. Indianapolis +1.1
  14. Dallas +1.0
  15. Cincinnati +1.0
  16. NY Giants +0.5
  17. Baltimore +0.4
  18. Washington -0.1
  19. Atlanta -0.4
  20. San Diego -1.1
  21. Arizona -1.2
  22. Miami -1.5
  23. Pittsburgh -1.7
  24. Minnesota -2.1
  25. Tennessee -2.3
  26. Cleveland -3.1
  27. Tampa Bay -3.2
  28. St. Louis -3.3
  29. NY Jets -5.1
  30. Buffalo -5.8
  31. Oakland -6.0
  32. Jacksonville -10.8

NBA Vegas SRS Rankings 11/19

Posted by David Williams on

What Vegas thinks of the 30 NBA teams…

Team Vegas SRS Record
Miami +6.8 7-3
LA Clippers +6.5 7-4
San Antonio +6.2 9-1
Oklahoma City +4.9 7-3
Golden State +4.5 8-3
Indiana +4.3 9-1
Houston +4.1 7-4
Chicago +3.7 6-3
Memphis +2.7 6-5
Minnesota +2.6 7-4
Brooklyn +1.5 3-7
Dallas +1.2 7-4
Portland +1.0 9-2
New Orleans +0.9 4-6
New York -0.1 3-6
Detroit -0.5 3-6
Denver -0.7 4-6
Atlanta -0.7 6-4
Toronto -0.9 4-7
Washington -1.2 2-7
Cleveland -1.7 4-7
Sacramento -2.4 2-7
Phoenix -3.7 5-4
Orlando -4.2 4-6
Boston -4.9 4-7
LA Lakers -5.2 5-7
Charlotte -5.4 5-6
Milwaukee -5.6 2-7
Utah -5.8 1-11
Philadelphia -6.3 5-7

2013-14 NBA RSPM Ratings Now Live

Posted by David Williams on

I’ve finished my first batch of RSPM ratings for NBA players this year. They can be found at this link: https://youhavenogame.wordpress.com/2013-14-rspm/

These ratings use a Bayesian prior. That means each rating is a combination of how well the player has actually performed, and my preseason projection for each player. When each player reaches 600 minutes played I will drop the prior and the RSPM will be based on this season’s performance only.

Top 10 most valuable players so far this year:

  1. Kevin Love
  2. Anthony Davis
  3. Chris Paul
  4. Ricky Rubio
  5. Paul George
  6. Kevin Durant
  7. Andre Iguodala
  8. DeAndre Jordan
  9. Roy Hibbert
  10. Blake Griffin

Bottom 10 LEAST valuable players so far this year:

  1. Dennis Schroeder
  2. Al Harrington
  3. John Lucas
  4. Aron Baynes
  5. Quincy Pondexter
  6. Derrick Rose (yes, that Derrick Rose)
  7. Udonis Haslem
  8. Jeff Taylor
  9. Alexey Shved
  10. Byron Mullens

NBA Vegas SRS Rankings 11/11

Posted by David Williams on

The NBA program is no more… it was fun when I thought RSPM numbers might actually do somewhat well against the spread. Instead I am publishing the NBA Vegas SRS rankings that in my opinion give the most accurate ranking of NBA teams.

  1. Miami +7.4
  2. San Antonio +5.9
  3. LA Clippers +5.4
  4. Chicago +4.8
  5. Oklahoma City +4.3
  6. Indiana +4.3
  7. Houston +4.1
  8. Golden State +3.3
  9. Memphis +3.0
  10. Brooklyn +2.9
  11. Minnesota +1.6
  12. Portland +1.0
  13. Dallas +0.9
  14. New Orleans +0.9
  15. New York +0.8
  16. Cleveland -0.5
  17. Denver -0.6
  18. Detroit -0.6
  19. Washington -1.1
  20. Atlanta -1.1
  21. Toronto -1.5
  22. Sacramento -1.9
  23. Milwaukee -4.4
  24. Phoenix -4.7
  25. Orlando -5.0
  26. Charlotte -5.1
  27. Boston -5.4
  28. LA Lakers -5.6
  29. Utah -5.6
  30. Philadelphia -6.2

NBA Program 11/10

Posted by David Williams on

RSPM RMSE: 12.00

Vegas RMSE: 10.71

When there is at least a three-point difference between RSPM and Vegas, RSPM is 22-25-1 against the spread. Almost as good as a coin flip!

Away Team Home Team RSPM Line Vegas Line
San Antonio (+9.48) New York (+0.84) San Antonio by 5.64 San Antonio by 3
Washington (+2.97) Oklahoma City (+5.36) Oklahoma City by 5.39 Oklahoma City by 9.5
New Orleans (+0.79) Phoenix (-10.59) New Orleans by 8.38 New Orleans by 2
Minnesota (+3.76) LA Lakers (-7.57) Minnesota by 8.33 Minnesota by 3.5

NBA Vegas SRS Rankings

Posted by David Williams on

If you’re familiar with Basketball Reference you’re probably also familiar with SRS. SRS stands for Simple Rating System. It rates teams by taking their point differentials and adjusting for their strength of schedule, then taking those updated rankings and adjusting them repeatedly until a stable rating is found. A detailed explanation of SRS can be found here.

I ran the SRS formula for the 30 NBA teams, but instead of using each team’s actual point differential, I used the point spreads from Las Vegas to rank the teams. The idea is to get a rough picture of what Las Vegas/the betting public thinks of each team. Here are the results:

  1. Miami +7.4
  2. San Antonio +6.2
  3. LA Clippers +5.4
  4. Chicago +4.8
  5. Houston +4.1
  6. Oklahoma City +4.1
  7. Indiana +4.0
  8. Memphis +3.4
  9. Golden State +3.4
  10. Brooklyn +2.9
  11. Minnesota +1.7
  12. New York +1.1
  13. Portland +1.0
  14. New Orleans +1.0
  15. Dallas +0.9
  16. Cleveland -0.6
  17. Detroit -0.7
  18. Denver -0.8
  19. Washington -1.0
  20. Atlanta -1.4
  21. Toronto -1.5
  22. Sacramento -2.0
  23. Milwaukee -4.4
  24. Charlotte -4.7
  25. Phoenix -4.8
  26. Orlando -5.0
  27. Boston -5.4
  28. Utah -5.5
  29. LA Lakers -5.6
  30. Philadelphia -6.6

NBA Program 11/9

Posted by David Williams on

RSPM RMSE: 11.93

Vegas RMSE: 10.63

When there is at least a three-point difference between RSPM and Vegas, RSPM is 20-22-1 against the spread.

Away Team Home Team RSPM Line Vegas Line
Utah (-6.87) Toronto (+1.96) Toronto by 11.83 Toronto by 9
Orlando (-5.94) Atlanta (+1.32) Atlanta by 10.26 Atlanta by 6.5
Indiana (+2.47) Brooklyn (+5.89) Brooklyn by 6.42 Brooklyn by 1
Philadelphia (-9.46) Cleveland (+1.34) Cleveland by 13.8 Cleveland by 8
Boston (-8.02) Miami (+9.79) Miami by 20.81 Miami by 13
LA Clippers (+8.71) Houston (+9.62) Houston by 3.91 Houston by 2.5
Golden State (+2.01) Memphis (+3.80) Memphis by 4.79 Memphis by 3
Dallas (+1.22) Milwaukee (-4.89) Dallas by 3.11 Dallas by 3
Portland (+0.79) Sacramento (-4.57) Portland by 2.36 Sacramento by 2

NBA Program 11/8

Posted by David Williams on

RSPM RMSE: 12.15

Vegas RMSE: 10.99

When there is at least a three-point difference between RSPM and Vegas, RSPM is 19-18-1 against the spread.

Away Team Home Team RSPM Line Vegas Line
New York (-0.18) Charlotte (-5.75) New York by 2.57 New York by 3
Toronto (+1.43) Indiana (+4.79) Indiana by 6.36 Indiana by 8.5
Boston (-7.58) Orlando (-6.31) Orlando by 4.27 Orlando by 5.5
Cleveland (+0.83) Philadelphia (-9.69) Cleveland by 7.52 Cleveland by 3.5
Brooklyn (+4.98) Washington (+1.98) Pick’em Brooklyn by 1.5
Oklahoma City (+3.19) Detroit (+6.58) Detroit by 6.39 Oklahoma City by 3
Utah (-7.18) Chicago (+8.03) Chicago by 18.21 Chicago by 12
Dallas (+1.51) Minnesota (+4.29) Minnesota by 5.78 Minnesota by 4.5
LA Lakers (-8.84) New Orleans (+0.61) New Orleans by 12.45 New Orleans by 9.5
Golden State (-0.38) San Antonio (+9.40) San Antonio by 12.78 San Antonio by 6
Denver (-1.34) Phoenix (-10.46) Denver by 6.12 Phoenix by 2
Sacramento (-5.10) Portland (+1.03) Portland by 9.13 Portland by 7.5

NBA Program 11/7

Posted by David Williams on

Yesterday’s results should drive home that I’m doing this for fun and I do not recommend using these numbers for betting purposes.

RSPM RMSE: 12.16

Vegas RMSE: 11.09

When there is at least a three-point difference between RSPM and Vegas, RSPM is 18-17-1 against the spread.

Away Team Home Team RSPM Line Vegas Line
LA Clippers (+8.45) Miami (+11.67) Miami by 6.22 Miami by 6
Atlanta (+1.83) Denver (-1.82) Atlanta by 0.65 Denver by 4.5
LA Lakers (-7.65) Houston (+8.65) Houston by 19.30 Houston by 13